The war in Karabakh is over, war is coming!
So, yesterday, November 11, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev announced the end of the war with Armenia, the goal of which was to restore the integrity of the sovereign borders of Azerbaijan.
The fighting, which lasted 45 days, ended for many as suddenly as it began. But not for everyone.
Of course, the factor of surprise was present, but as paradoxical as it may sound - it was expected.
When the military operation to quell the occupiers in Nagorno Karabakh began on September 27, I did not see anything sudden in it. Clashes between the Azerbaijani army and Armenian formations along the border of Azerbaijan and the so-called NKR took place regularly and sometimes the fighting lasted for weeks, but did not reach a logical end, because they were spontaneous.
Over the past few years, Azerbaijan has significantly strengthened its troops with high-tech weapons, and joint exercises with Turkey have only convinced us that the hour of retaliation is near.
And because it's amazing that this operation has begun? That's right - nothing.
As for the unexpected capitulation of Yerevan and the signing of the "world", so in this situation, everything is much more interesting.
Many experts are now dissatisfied with the situation, and jurists are appealing to a number of international instruments that have been ignored. Of course, after a cup of coffee with a croissant, to type an angry text, to publish on Facebook or on the pages of a tabloid is one thing, and quite another not to demonstrate their knowledge of international law and some theory, but to look at the essence of things.
Virtually none of the experts, jurists and other word forgers now remember the very bright episode of November 9, which took place before the announcement of Pashinyan's surrender. I mean the destruction of the Russian Mi-24 attack helicopter on the border with the Nakhichevan Autonomy and Armenia.
The destroyed military helicopter and the death of the crew, these are not fakes of Kotz and Pegov about Turkish F-16 shelling maternity hospitals and churches, and eternal mantras about whether they took Hadrut or not. This is a very serious precedent, which gave Russia a hypertrophied but right to intervene in the conflict. And the fact that more than 20 IL-76s landed in Yerevan in less than 24 hours after Armenia's capitulation shows that the Russian military was in full combat readiness and waiting for an order. Orders to fly to Armenia as "peacekeepers" or as interventionists. Although, there is no difference in this case.
Some may say that Baku would be the only one in the situation of Russian intervention, here Ankara would help, and Islamabad did not stay aside and many others. But those who say this were clearly not in Ganja when the Armenian R-17 missile fell on the sleeping city. Or when Bard found himself under a swarm of Tornadoes.
Russia could easily, with its Caspian flotilla, fire at Caliber with cruise missiles with complete impunity, sowing terror and destruction. And not only Baku. And cruise missiles in Russia, not like in Armenia, each on account. She wouldn't spare ammunition, turning entire neighborhoods to dust.
Continuation to the Odessa courier https://uc.od.ua/columns/1533/1230813
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