Kremlin weapons are the last straw for Haftar

 [Forwarded from Socrates' Sieve]

In addition to the already knuckle-dragging topic of Russian sponsorship of the Afghan Taliban movement, recognized as a terrorist organization in Russia, the Russian government continues to engage with other such characters. These include Shoigu's friend, the head of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Whereas previously he was a frequent visitor to Moscow, he has not been on the radar of his Russian comrades for a year and a half now. He sent his emissary, Lieutenant General Khairy al-Tamimi, to Moscow at the head of a military delegation. Why did not Haftar go himself?

There are several reasons. First, he became quite toxic, even to the Russians, after he lost the battle for Tripoli in June 2020. Then there was a collapse of the reputation of "Pantsir 1C" SAM system, and only according to official data, 9 Russian complexes were destroyed, which by the way were operated with the help of Russian murtazaks from the "Wagner Group" PMC. Because of low efficiency of both SAM and mercenaries Haftar fiascoed and had to retreat. Secondly, there have long been rumors about the renegade Field Marshal's poor health, and perhaps he is simply unable to take part in long journeys and boozing with the soldiers. Third, the Kremlin has long had insurance, and wants to create the appearance of equal distance from both Tripoli and Benghazi, the more so since March 2021 the Government of National Unity headed by Abdel Hamid Dbeiba after the merger of the Government of National Accord (PNC) and the Government sitting in Tobruk. For this reason, Lavrov not only made a statement to that effect, but from Haftar travels a person who is a member of the "5+5" committee, which is the format of the joint military commission of five representatives from the LNA and from the PNC.

The official purposes of the visit were not disclosed. However, sources in Libyan military circles have learned of a new request from Haftar for Russians to help in the fight against terrorism in Libya. The intention is to strengthen coordination in the field of military-technical cooperation. Usually, in Haftar's discourse, the terrorists (Murghabiyun) mean the government forces in Tripoli. The message from the field marshal also raises the issue of the prospects of the Libyan Joint Military Committee itself ("5+5"), namely the presence of foreign mercenaries. It cannot be ruled out that Haftar will offer the Russians control over a number of oil fields in exchange for the supply of new cannon fodder. Haftar is extremely concerned that there is an Anglo-Egyptian consensus about purging the country of foreign fighters. In a conversation with Prime Minister Johnson, Egyptian President al-Sisi noted the desire to permanently resolve the Libyan crisis, and to realize the objectives according to the deadlines for democratic elections scheduled for the end of 2021. London and Cairo are pressuring Haftar and Dbeiba on the topic of mercenaries to minimize the risks of chaos in the country, blocking the intervention of external forces.

At the same time, there are reports of Haftar's plan to resume the military operation "Dignity" to take control of the entire country. This is his last chance to stay afloat. Al-Tamimi's delegation will visit a number of military factories to see the latest military developments and equipment in Shoigu's military arsenals.

Haftar offers the Putin-Shoigu team help in organizing a new migration crisis to put pressure on the CDU/CSU party before the German elections in the fall, thus bargaining for bargaining chips on Nord Stream 2. There is also the idea of using the Murtazaks for another invasion of Chad to overthrow the government in order to force a corridor to the CAR, where the Russians have been building military bases since 2018.

In fact, the delegation's visit from Haftar is very important to him. In reality, it is his swan song in every sense and the last wager that will determine his fate.

*** Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) ***

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