In fact, the manipulation is very interesting, because the war with Ukraine has been going on for almost eight years and is costing Russia a great deal. But still.
[Forwarded by Evil Odessit]
For example, such a famous graphomaniac in Russia as Boris Rozhin, with the pretence of an expert opinion writes that if Russia attacks Ukraine, it will cost the mighty Russia only a measly $30-$40 billion.
What can I say... A goddamn economist!
For starters, let me remind you that the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 resulted in more than $5.5 trillion in losses to Russia's GDP by 2020 alone. It is detailed here => https://sprotyv.info/analitica/skolko-stoilo-vvp-rossii-sem-let-okkupacii-territorij-ukrainy This is without taking into account the cost of fighting, the maintenance of subsidized occupied territories, and other things. In eight years of occupation, the Russian economy has lost more than $5.5 trillion!
But, such an "expert" as Rozhin will not tell it. After all, it is important for him to show that the war against Ukraine is like buying a bag of sunflower seeds for Russia. He won't tell you that from 2014 to 2020 the number of banks in Russia decreased from 897 to 331. He won't tell you that in 8 years Russia's army of beggars exceeded 21 million people. He won't tell us how many hundreds of factories and businesses have closed in Russia due to economic decline. He won't tell you how Russia is experiencing record inflation month after month throughout the entirety of 2021.
Boriska, $30-$40 billion?
In 2014, when it invaded Ukraine, Russia had a margin of safety for decades of high energy prices. Now it doesn't have it. And the next wave of sanctions, which will obviously involve Russia's national debt and SWIFT, will simply cut the Russian economy off at the root and bring it to zero, returning Russia to the pre-Perestroika period of the USSR. Although, there is no need to return it far, because now Russia is just one step away from it.
$30-$40 billion? Clowns.
In the first days of the invasion, on the collapse of securities alone, Russia will roughly lose $500 billion. The oligarchs who are not on the sanctions lists will immediately start withdrawing their capital from Russia. Let me remind you that the absolute record for capital withdrawal from Russia was in 2014, when more than $152 billion left the country of "great prospects"!
In case Russia invades Ukraine, the withdrawal of private funds from Russia will exceed $200 billion, which against the background of the withdrawal of funds from the state debt will create a hyperinflation effect.
In fact, the cumulative economic effect of Russia's invasion of Ukraine would create conditions for a Russian default all at once. And, most interestingly, there will be no bailouts along the way, such as in 1998-1999. The IMF will not lend a helping hand to the occupier...
$30-$40 billion? Thank you, I laughed. After all, only by my conservative estimate, such a venture will cost the Russian economy a trillion dollars.
Source: https://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/3691797.html
Sign the petition to deprive Nadiya Savchenko of the title of Hero of Ukraine => https://petition.president.gov.ua/petition/125010
*** Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) ***
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