Самое полное руководство по работе с TweetDeck :: (12) Oleg Michman 25% �� 146% ☢️ ☣️⚠️ (@CASBT_UA) / Твіттер

 Ukraine has won the second phase of the war

So, what I wrote a few days ago as a hunch, a premonition, a gut feeling has now taken shape definitively.

 There has definitely been a change in the war. More precisely, the second phase of the war ended - and it ended with the victory of Ukraine again. 

The first phase, which can be conventionally called the "blitz-crunch" and which was characterized by plans to seize all or most of Ukraine, and primarily its capital, was a complete failure for Russia. This phase ended with the deafening defeat of the Kiev grouping and the flight of the Russian army from the territory of northern Ukraine. 

Now the second phase has come to an end. I would call it the "Occupation of the entire Donbass. 

Yes, yes - the plan to occupy all of Donbass seems to be abandoned. 

And this cross is once again given by Ukraine. 

This does not mean that Ukraine has already won the entire battle for Donbass. Victory will come when the territory of Donbass is cleared - and this will be the fourth or fifth phase - and it definitely will be! 

But the second phase - the Russian offensive in Donbass - has been stopped. 

And - once again - Ukraine has again emerged victorious from it. 

Reread this line. The winner of Russia's offensive in the Donbass was again Ukraine. 

That is, watch your hands. How the strategic goals changed. First - occupation of the whole Ukraine, overthrow of the government, appointment of its gauleiter, destruction of all dissenters and all resistance, concentration camps, new USSR with Ukrainian SSR and Belarusian SSR, parade on Kreshchatik, exit to Poland borders and then new reality with new back shitting Soviet monster with a nuclear baton and second army in the world, aimed at the Baltic states, Finland and Sweden. 

Remember? Do you remember that feeling of February-mrath? 

It didn't. 

The second stage was the battle for Donbass, the seizure of the entire Donetsk and Lugansk regions, breaking through the corridor to Transnistria, landing in Odessa, Snake Island, control of the entire Black Sea. 

It did not work.

Now there is an operational pause, preventing the export of Ukrainian grain and Kherson would be held. 

The supply of Western arms has fundamentally changed the situation. That is, not the weaponry itself, but the retraining of the Ukrainian army on KHIMARs and other stuff. It is this time. It was this mastering of the technology that brought about the turnaround in the war. 

Yes the present moment and Russia had two advantages - the number of cannon fodder and the amount of artillery and ammunition for them. 

And now this advantage is being nullified by strikes on the depots. 

And Russia cannot provide new tactics to replace those destroyed by the KHIMARS! 

It simply cannot come up with anything that would allow it to continue to act in the same way - albeit slowly, albeit with mountains of corpses behind the ramparts - but still effectively, biting off kilometer after kilometer of Ukrainian territory. 

Without this, the amount of cannon fodder ceases to matter. 

So, the main outcome of the end of the second phase. It is not the stopping of the offensive in Donbass. It's not the delivery of KHIMARS. And not the destruction of the depots. 

The main outcome is that Russia has lost the initiative in tactics and cannot quickly offer anything new in return. 

It simply has nothing else in reserve. She simply does not know how to do anything else. 

And once this advantage of hers was wiped out, the gears snapped and began to turn.  

Richard Moore, head of the British Foreign Office's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), believes that Russia has failed "epically" in trying to achieve its original goals in Ukraine: to remove Vladimir Zelensky from office, take over Kiev and divide the West. According to the head of MI6, the recent successes of Russian troops in Ukraine have been "negligible" and Russia is "about to run out of steam. "According to our assessment, the Russians will find it increasingly difficult to find manpower, weapons and military equipment in the next few weeks. They will have to pause somehow, and that will give the Ukrainians an opportunity to strike back."

Your Grandfather. 

Ukraine, on the other hand, is one step ahead every time. 

And Russia is now forced not to impose its will, but to defend itself against the will of Ukraine. 

*** Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) ***

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