The battle for the south: when and how can the Russian army launch a further offensive in Ukraine

BBC

9 min

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In recent days, the Russian army has deployed dozens of its battalion-tactical groups from the Donbass to southern Ukraine - these are thousands of fighters and hundreds of pieces of equipment.

Such maneuvers could mean the desire of the Russians to secure Kherson and the surrounding areas, captured back in February, from the announced counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army.

If it were not for the number and composition of this new southern grouping, it would be too large and include such a number of landing units that it would not be very rational to use in defense instead of conventional motorized infantry.

This may be a sign that soon the main theater of operations of Russia's war against Ukraine will move from the expanses of Donbass to the southern steppes, to both banks of the Dnieper in its lower reaches.

Active battles in this area may begin in the coming days and have a serious impact on the entire war.

At the same time, the fighting in the Donbass does not stop and the Ukrainian infantry remains under massive shelling of Russian artillery.

Offensive group?

Photo author, Ministry of Defense of Russia

One of the first about the transfer of troops by Russia from near Kharkov and Donbass to the south, on July 28, was written by a military observer, coordinator of the Information Resistance group Konstantin Mashovets.

According to him, at the end of July, the Russians redeployed units of the Eastern Military District to the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.

In particular, we are talking about units of the 35th combined-arms army, which broke through to Kyiv at the beginning of the war: it was its 64th motorized rifle brigade that occupied Bucha in March and it is it that is accused of involvement in war crimes.

Later, the same 35th Army fought near Izyum, Kharkov region.

“Personally for me, for example, the movement and use of the 35th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces in this sense is a kind of marker - an indicator of exactly where the attention of their General Staff is currently riveted,” wrote Konstantin Mashovets.

In addition to the "Far Eastern" brigades, the Russians are also concentrating in the Ukrainian south the majority of their airborne units, with a total strength of about 10,000 fighters.

Photo author, Ministry of Defense of Russia

The presence of a group of Russian paratroopers on the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region (that is, on the same bank as Kherson) was also confirmed on August 1 by Aleksey Arestovich, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, on the air of the Feigin Live channel.

"It is obvious that the command of the enemy troops is deploying in the Southern Operational Zone (i.e., in the Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog and Zaporozhye directions) an operational offensive grouping of troops, the basis of which will be the troops of the Eastern Military District ... and the main forces of the airborne troops of the RF Armed Forces, plus separate units and the 49th and 58th combined-arms armies of the Southern Military District," said Konstantin Mashovets.

In the end, some conclusions about the plans of the Russians can be drawn on the basis of the equipment that they are transferring to the south.

On July 30, a video of a train that was probably going from Crimea to mainland Ukraine appeared on the network.

It shows equipment marked "V" (meaning belonging to the Eastern Military District of Russia).

Among this equipment: IMR-2 (engineering vehicle obstacles), several EOV-4421 (military excavators), several TMM-3 (heavy mechanized bridges, which are used in the army to overcome obstacles up to 40 meters wide), as well as BAT-2 (military bulldozer on the chassis of an artillery tractor).

If excavators and civilian tractors, also in the echelon, can theoretically still be used to build trenches and other defensive fortifications, then the main task of IMRs, BATs and mechanized bridges is to ensure that columns move forward through rubble and obstacles like small rivers.

Paratroopers and Wagnerians

Photo by Telegram

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“You need to understand that the enemy lacks well-trained forces, and airborne units are among the most combat-ready. And even the bloodless ones have sufficient combat potential to carry out both defensive and offensive tasks in the most important areas,” says Pavel about the concentration of Russian paratroopers Lakiychuk, Head of Security Projects at the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI" in a conversation with BBC News Ukraine.

The conclusion that the Russians are preparing an offensive, and not a defense against the offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Kherson, is also inclined by a Ukrainian officer serving in the southern direction, who agreed to speak with the BBC Ukrainian Service only on condition of anonymity.

“A priori, any unit should be able to work both on the offensive and on the defensive, this is a matter of tactics. But using an airborne assault on the defensive is strange, especially from the point of view of a strategic perspective. Unless we are talking about maneuvering defense,” the military man says.

“It looks like there will be a classic combined-arms operation. They are bringing Peonies (203-mm self-propelled guns - Ed.) And a bunch of other things,” the officer adds.

According to him, the aggressiveness of the actions of Russian military personnel can be added by their competition with the "Wagnerites" - members of the so-called private military companies "Wagner" and "League", which, according to Ukrainian intelligence, have been fighting on the side of the Russians since the beginning of the invasion and perform functions assault infantry.

It is believed that it was the "Wagnerites" who played a key role in the successful assault by the Russians of Popasnaya in May, and recently in the capture of the Uglegorsk TPP.

"Wagnerites" demonstrate efficiency, for which they receive encouragement. The Russian army also wants to show success - there can be a fight for money," the Ukrainian officer suggests.

Potential areas of attack

"An offensive is possible in three directions: Zaporozhye, Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog and Nikopol. The third direction looks the most likely," Pavel Lakiychuk estimates.

On July 3, the Operational Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "South" officially announced the "creation of a strike force in the Krivoy Rog direction" for the first time.

"The idea of ​​the Russians is this: go to Krivoy Rog and go to Nikolaev, covering it from the north and trying to break through from Snegirevka to Voznesensk near Nikolaev. This is what they have already done," Alexei Arestovich said earlier.

And Konstantin Mashovets believes that the regrouping of Russians threatens Zaporozhye in the future.

“Personally, in my opinion, the enemy is going to attack on both banks of the Dnieper to the north. That is, on Nikopol-Zaporozhye (on the right bank) and almost simultaneously on the other side (along the left bank) also on Zaporozhye. But not immediately, and not even tomorrow , but only after "solving urgent problematic issues" in the Southern Operational Zone," writes Konstantin Mashovets.

Another military observer, ex-officer of the main operational department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleg Zhdanov, suggested on the air of the telethon that the main efforts of the Russians would be concentrated in the direction of Voznesensk, north of Nikolaev.

"Voznesensk has been their political task since the beginning of the war. They advanced on Kherson-Nikolaev-Voznesensk and then tried to cross to Odessa and Transnistria. So now they want to show that they are capable of something in the context of fulfilling the political tasks that they face this war," Oleg Zhdanov said.

The "corridor" to Transnistria was announced in the Russian army in the spring as one of the goals of the "special military operation."

"As for a breakthrough up to Transnistria, this should not be completely ruled out. But then this operation should be of a broader nature. Then, in addition to an attack on Nikolaev and further along the Ukrainian coast towards Odessa, it is possible to carry out an amphibious landing operation, as well as some kind of tactical strikes from Transnistria itself," Pavel Lakiychuk notes.

"The Armed Forces of Ukraine were preparing for the landing operation and provocations in the Pridnestrovian direction, and they are unlikely to be crowned with success," he adds.

"Ready and Getting Ready"

Photo author, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

According to Aleksey Arestovich, in total, Russia has concentrated about 30 battalion tactical groups (BTGr) in the southern theater.

This is more than 20 thousand fighters,

According to Arestovich, these armored personnel carriers suffered significant losses and cannot boast of a full staff."

"The level of combat readiness of these troops causes skepticism. They lack people, their moral, psychological and technical condition leaves much to be desired," said the adviser to the head of the President's Office in one of the broadcasts with Mark Feygin.

However, this grouping is powerful enough for offensive operations (not to mention defense). Especially if you take into account the significant advantage of the Russians in artillery and ammunition for it, which has not disappeared anywhere.

With a similar number of armored personnel carriers, the Russians successfully attacked Izyum. Later, these same forces participated in the battle for the remnants of the Lugansk region (although in the Lugansk region, the number of battalion-tactical groups among the Russians was greater and approached 50).

"Artillery is gradually approaching us. Hands are growing, there are new opportunities. But the Russians still have the advantage in fire," the officer from the south admits.

At the same time, whatever the main direction of the Russian offensive (or advance along all three), the Ukrainian army, which in recent months has been concentrating its forces here for a counteroffensive, has something to meet the Russian military.

"The readiness of the Russians for the offensive is on August 6-8. This does not mean that they will go on that day or the next. They may postpone it for several days, or they may not postpone it. We are ready and preparing. Therefore, we will meet," Alexei announced Arestovich.

Photo author, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is manifested in artillery strikes on the logistics of the Russians.

In recent days, the Ukrainian army has successfully shelled the Antonovsky railway bridge, Russian warehouses in the Oleshki, Chernobaevka, Novaya Kakhovka, Beryslav and even Skadovsk, located more than 80 km from the front line.

But the most notable was the destruction of a 40-car Russian train train with personnel and ammunition in Brilovka, 40 km from Kherson.

Photo by Telegram

Russia has not officially commented on these attacks and statements about them. At the same time, Russian military publics reposted videos of residents of these regions with footage of fires and sounds of explosions.

In addition, the Ukrainian army continues to hold a small foothold south of Davydov Brod on the left bank of the Inhulets River.

Donbass and Kharkov region

Photo author, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

In parallel with the regrouping of Russians to the south, hostilities do not stop in other sectors of the front - near Kharkov and in the Donbass.

The hottest spots at the beginning of August were and remain the villages of Kodema, Gladosovo and Mayskoye south of Bakhmut, as well as Peski, the legendary defense point of the Ukrainian army in the area of ​​​​Donetsk airport since 2014.

The Ukrainian media space was stirred up by the post of a fighter of the 21st separate motorized infantry battalion "Sarmat" (56th brigade) Sergey Gnezdilov about the plight of the defenders of Pesky without artillery support.

"You can't even imagine the number and percentage of losses. This is ... a meat grinder, where the battalion simply holds back the invasion with its bodies," he wrote.

Later it became known that the help approached, and the enemy managed to advance only a few hundred meters.

At the same time, the Ukrainian army continues to inflict damage on the enemy in the Donbass - near Verkhnetoretsky, not far from Gorlovka, the commander of the rocket artillery division of the self-proclaimed DPR, Olga Kachura, better known by the call sign Korsa, died from an artillery strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Photo by Telegram

Before the war, she worked in the Donetsk police and rose to the rank of lieutenant colonel, but since 2014 she joined the pro-Russian separatists and became the "only female MLRS commander" in the so-called "republic". Russian propaganda has turned her into a media character on the level of Givi and Motorola.

In general, as military observers predict, the front in the Kharkiv region and in the Donbass will not calm down even with the transfer of the main battles to the south - the Russians will continue to maintain pressure on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine so that the Ukrainian army cannot transfer its reserves to the main theater of operations in the southern steppes.

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