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 NATO - in Arrival

Why did Western countries react so modestly to missiles that flew into Poland straight from the war in Ukraine? Political scientist Andrei Kolesnikov answers

14:36, 20 November 2022

Irina Tumakova, specially for "Novaya Gazeta. Europe."

On November 15, two rockets fell in the village of Przewodow in Poland's Lublin Voivodeship, killing two people. The Russian Defense Ministry immediately claimed that the rockets were Ukrainian; Kiev blamed Moscow for the incident. The White House and Europe are of the same opinion: Yes, it was an accident, as a result of which the Ukrainian missiles, which apparently flew to intercept the Russian ones, deviated from their course - but if Russia had not started this war in general, nothing would have happened. Apart from the first reactions on the day of the missile drop, everyone else - except Russia and Ukraine - was very restrained, including NATO countries and even Poland, which is supposed to be most outraged. What is the reason for such a careful reaction of the countries and how will the North Atlantic Alliance behave now in connection with the increased risks for the NATO countries from the war in Ukraine? Political scientist Andrei Kolesnikov answers

- When it became known about the missiles that fell in Poland, I saw somewhere on the net a gloomy joke: "Poland has been hastily expelled from NATO". Why did NATO countries react so cautiously to this, as if they did not want to notice such an event at all?

- NATO countries in general are very cautious. They never wanted a war - they don't want one now. They have never stood at our "gates" - and they did everything not to stand at these "gates". All that is said in Russia about NATO is pure propaganda, nothing more. Although the propaganda, we must admit, is successful. Even before the "special operation" began, NATO was always, according to sociologists, in the top of the list of "enemy" institutions. The Russians have a very negative attitude toward the alliance. Year after year, consistently maintaining a negative image of NATO as a symbol of what is now called the "collective West" was part of the mental preparation for the "special operation. On the day of the disaster, it was noticeable that Western leaders were trying to be very careful. That said, it was obvious to all, and this was stressed in European states and in the US, that there was a direct causal link between the missile falling on Poles' heads - and what Russia was doing on that day. But this stance still avoids the very hot phase of World War III, which is now going on in a hybrid, proxy format.

- Two people died in Poland. Will the Poles swallow it without a response?

- Obviously, these two Polish citizens were victims of the current conflict. The blame for this lies with the Russian leadership. But how to respond to this? It is clear that it is very difficult for Western countries to formulate such a response.

- Russia's response is predictable: it was not our missile, but fragments of a Ukrainian missile, so Ukraine is to blame.

- There is such a concept as causality: you started this conflict, you stage missile attacks, from which the injured party, of course, tries to defend itself. As a result of this defense, severe incidents are possible in the form of debris falling from the sky. If the Russian leadership had not given the command to launch missiles, nothing would have fallen from the sky and two Polish citizens would not have been killed.

- For nine months Ukraine has been shouting to NATO countries: This can affect you too. Why didn't the bloc prepare for this?

- So far, I think, NATO countries have no clearly formulated position on how to respond to such situations, what algorithm to build. That case showed that NATO, contrary to widespread perceptions, is an excessively peace-loving organization and is not prepared for such a situation. It is precisely because

for many years NATO was less of a military organization. The bloc was like a civilian-type structure. Nobody there was preparing for wars with Russia.

*** Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) ***

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