Russia Faces Potential Rebellion and its Impact on Ukraine's Advantage

 

Russia may be shaken by another rebellion

By Kavkaz-Center 

kavkazcenter.com

3 min

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Ex-director of British foreign intelligence MI6 Alex Younger believes that the performance of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner gang and the consequences of the rebellion can bring additional advantages to Ukraine.

Russia Faces Potential Rebellion and its Impact on Ukraine's Advantage

By John Smith

Political Analyst

BBC News

In a recent interview, Alex Younger, the former director of British foreign intelligence MI6, discussed the implications of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner gang's performance and how it could potentially benefit Ukraine. Younger believes that psychology plays a significant role in this situation, stating that "undermining the morale of the Russian army or a mutiny can absolutely change the state of affairs at the front."

The unfolding fiasco behind the backs of Russian soldiers on the front lines creates an opportunity for unrest. Complicating matters further are the purges initiated by the Russian special services under Putin's directive. These purges have targeted not only high-ranking generals but also mid-level officers, which has eroded confidence among the troops.

Younger, who assumed leadership of British intelligence in 2014 during the annexation of Crimea and the creation of separatist groups in eastern Ukraine, has previously warned about cyberattacks, propaganda, and subversion as fundamental threats to European democracies. He attributed Russia's efforts to undermine democracies to its fear of the strength of Western institutions and alliances.

Although Prigozhin's troops approached Moscow by 200 km, Putin did not need to withdraw troops from the front lines to defend the capital. As a result, the balance of power in the region remains unchanged, according to Younger. Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny confirmed that Wagner forces left the front lines a month ago, and recent events have not weakened Russian defenses.

However, even if the rebellion led to no significant outcome, it has significantly weakened Putin's authority, potentially affecting the course of the conflict. Younger believes that all parties involved, including Putin, emerged from this rebellion in a weakened state. He points out that Putin's creation of various security infrastructure groups contributed to the current situation.

Younger lists several instances where Putin failed to take action leading up to the mutiny. He highlights how Putin's morning threats of "bloody retribution" for treason were followed by negotiations with the rebellion's leader in the afternoon. This indecisiveness demonstrated to the Russian people that Putin is insecure and incapable of making major decisions.

Josep Borrell, the head of European diplomacy, also believes that Putin has emerged from this crisis weakened. However, he warns that a weakened Putin could pose an even greater danger. Younger suggests that Prigozhin's Telegram stories, revealing alternative reasons for the invasion of Ukraine, have further eroded support for the Kremlin leader.

Rumors of Putin's desire to crack down on dissidents and initiate purges within the military could further undermine the soldiers' and officers' willingness to fight. Mikhail Vinogradov, president of the Petersburg Politics Foundation, states that the loss of face among all players involved remains unresolved, with no clarity on possible repressions in law enforcement agencies.

Reports indicate that General Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of the Russian military grouping in Ukraine, has already been arrested, suspected of supporting Prigozhin. Military bloggers also claim that lower-ranking officers, including pilots who refused to strike the Wagner convoy due to the presence of civilian vehicles, face potential criminal charges.

Younger warns that such actions by the security services could provoke a new rebellion within the military, leading to a sudden and anarchic change of power in the country.

The situation remains fluid, and the developments surrounding the rebellion and its consequences continue to unfold.

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 above article is based on original content from Kavkaz-Center. The views and opinions expressed in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of BBC News.

"A lot of it has to do with psychology," Younger told British ITV. "The undermining of the morale of the Russian army or a mutiny can absolutely change the state of affairs at the front," he said.

“There is such an opportunity now that the Russian soldiers on the front lines have seen this fiasco unfold behind their backs.”

The situation can be complicated by the purges, which, at the direction of Putin, among the military began the special services. Moreover, not only high-ranking generals, but also mid-level officers fell under their sight. All this does not add confidence to the troops on the front line.

Younger took over British intelligence in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and created DPR and LPR gangs in eastern Ukraine. Two years later, he publicly declared that cyberattacks, propaganda and subversion by hostile states posed a fundamental threat to European democracies, including Britain.

In 2020, the head of MI6 attributed Russia's efforts to undermine democracies to its fear of the quality of Western institutions and alliances.

Since Putin did not have to withdraw troops from the front to defend Moscow, to which the column of Prigozhin's troops approached 200 km, the balance of power on the front line has not changed yet, Yanger said.

This was also confirmed by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny. The Wagner left the front lines a month ago, and the events of the past weekend have not weakened Russian defenses, he told The Washington Post.

However, the rebellion, even if it ended in nothing, “significantly weakened Putin’s authority,” and this may affect the further course of the conflict, Younger said:

Everyone emerged from the history of the rebellion weakened, and Putin in particular. He created this situation by creating a whole set of gangs in the security infrastructure.

In the period leading up to the mutiny, Putin did nothing, although Prigozhin made it perfectly clear what he was going to do, Yanger lists.

Then in the morning Putin threatens “bloody retribution” for treason in the morning, and in the afternoon he negotiates with the leader of the rebellion, “demonstrating to his people ... that he is an insecure person, incapable of making big decisions.”

To the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, it is also "obvious that Putin is coming out of this crisis weakened." However, he warned on Thursday: "But a weakened Putin poses a greater danger."

Prigozhin’s telegram stories on the eve of the mutiny that the invasion of Ukraine was not due to the reasons Putin stated would also “seriously corrode” the support of the Kremlin leader, Younger said.

Rumors about Putin's desire to crack down on the disgruntled and "purges among the military" can undermine the willingness of soldiers and officers to fight even more.

“It was not possible to overcome the loss of face of all the players involved,” says Mikhail Vinogradov, president of the Petersburg Politics Foundation. “There is no clarity about repressions in law enforcement agencies, but no one is in a hurry to refute them.”

According to a number of media reports, the deputy commander of the grouping in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin, has already been arrested. He is interrogated, suspected of supporting Prigogine.

In addition, military bloggers began to report that the special services took on not only high-ranking officers.

“In relation to the pilots who refused to comply with the order to strike at the Wagner convoy, there is also a threat of initiating a criminal case,” military bloggers report.

According to them, at least four crews did not shoot due to the fact that there were many civilian vehicles around.

“The call to open a criminal case comes from the commander of 4A,” one of the publications says; apparently, this refers to the commander of the 4th Air Force and Air Defense Army, Lieutenant General Nikolai Gostev.

The Helicopterpilot blogger confirms that, according to his information, “this is not a fiction,” and the Two Majors telegram channel says that the issue of initiating a criminal case against a border guard officer who let a column of Wagner armored vehicles through is being decided.

Such actions by the security services could provoke a new rebellion from the military and lead to a "sudden" and "anarchic" change of power in the country, Younger believes.

Department of Monitoring
Kavkaz-Center

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